Overview
On 17th November, the average global temperature briefly exceeded a crucial threshold, surpassing 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
This occurrence underscores unprecedented global warming, with scientists emphasising the irreversible and disastrous impacts that loom large over the planet.
Global Temperature Surge: Navigating the Precarious 2-Degree Threshold
On 17th November and 18th November, global temperatures may have briefly exceeded a critical threshold scientists warn could lead to irreversible damage if sustained over extended periods. Estimations reveal that the average global daily temperature during these two days was approximately 2°C warmer than the 1850-1900 average.
Preliminary data disclosed on X by Samantha Burgess, the deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service in Europe, indicates that last Friday marked the first instance where the global average temperature exceeded 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels.
It’s crucial to note that this breach is temporary and doesn’t imply a permanent warming state beyond 2 degrees. Nevertheless, it is a clear sign of the planet steadily heating, getting hotter and hotter, heading towards a long-term scenario where the impacts of the climate crisis become increasingly formidable and, in some circumstances, virtually impossible to reverse.
The data from Copernicus is currently in a preliminary stage and will take weeks to be confirmed through real-life observations.
Looking ahead, the world seems poised to surpass the 1.5 degrees of warming more sustainably in the coming years. This threshold is critical, as beyond it, scientists warn that both humans and ecosystems will face significant challenges in adapting.
A recent UN report, published on Monday underscores that even if countries adhere to their emissions-reduction commitments, the world is projected to experience warming between 2.5 and 2.9 degrees sometime in this century.
While 1.5 degrees isn’t an immediate cliff edge for the Earth, each fraction of a degree beyond that intensifies the severity of impacts. Warming to 2 degrees, for instance, puts a more significant portion of the population at risk of deadly extreme weather events and heightens the likelihood of irreversible tipping points, such as the collapse of polar ice sheets and the widespread demise of coral reefs.
Unprecedented Warming Trends and the Potential Record-Breaking Status of 2023
The unusual warming observed in the two days of November last week follows a series of months with consistently high temperatures.
For example, the data from GISS, released on 15th November, reveals that October of this year was the warmest on record, outperforming the second-warmest October in 2015 by 0.25 degrees.
This marks the fifth consecutive month where the average temperature has set a new record this year. The January-October average for this year is 1.12 degrees warmer than the 1951-1980 baseline in GISS, making it the warmest for the first ten months.
A senior scientist from the World Meteorological Organization, speaking on condition of anonymity, admitted that while the breach of the 2°C threshold was temporary, it’s highly likely that 2023 will be recorded as the warmest year on record.
The scientist emphasised that the information is from Copernicus Climate Change Service, one of the datasets used by WMO for its State of the Global Climate monitoring, and has not been independently verified yet.
Conclusion
The undeniable reality of global warming is starkly evident in the recent breach of the 2-degree Celsius threshold. This event, coupled with consecutive months of record-breaking temperatures, stresses the urgent need to acknowledge and address climate change’s indisputable impacts. The trajectory is clear – collective action is imperative to mitigate the escalating warming of our planet. As 2023 ends, the potential record-breaking warmth poses a stark reminder of the urgent need for global climate action. Our planet’s future rests on decisive, collaborative efforts.
