COP29, the 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), scheduled for November 2024 in Baku, Azerbaijan, promises to be a pivotal moment.
While collaborative action is paramount to address the escalating climate crisis, a potential clash between developed and developing nations, particularly with China at the center, threatens to derail progress.
A central theme of COP29 will be setting ambitious new finance targets to replace existing ones that expire in 2025.
Some estimates suggest that between US$1 trillion and US$6 trillion per year is needed to lead developing countries towards a green transition and strengthen their resilience to extreme weather events.
The Funding Gap: Trillions Needed
Estimates suggest a staggering sum between $1 trillion and $6 trillion annually is required to meet the ambitious goals set forth in the Paris Agreement, the international treaty on climate change mitigation and adaptation. This funding is crucial to support developing countries in two main areas and those are adaptation and mitigation.
Developing countries are often on the front lines of climate change, facing the devastating consequences of a warming planet. Rising sea levels threaten coastal communities, extreme weather events disrupt agricultural production, and changing weather patterns exacerbate water scarcity.
The climate meetings @UNBonn have concluded. Our team on-the-ground engaged with global parties and stakeholders to discuss expectations around #COP29 and global climate goals. #SB60 has set the agenda for COP29 and we will welcome the world to #Azerbaijan in November. pic.twitter.com/pBPzd6kgYT
— COP29 AZ (@COP29_AZ) June 14, 2024
Adaptation funding helps these countries build resilience to these impacts. They are often more vulnerable to climate change effects, facing rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and disruptions to food and water security.
Developed nations, meanwhile, possess the financial resources and technological advancements to transition to cleaner energy sources and adapt to a changing climate.
Analysts on COP29
Analysts estimate that achieving the Paris Agreement’s most ambitious goal of controlling global temperature would cost between $1 trillion and $6 trillion per year.
Negotiators in Bonn said any climate finance deal would likely resemble an onion, with a headline about the funding needed, including from the private sector, and the amount would come from developed countries’ public coffers.
Additional layers could include contributions from non-donor countries such as China and multilateral development banks. This year’s climate negotiations are taking place under far-from-ideal conditions.
COP29 begins just days after the US presidential election, and negotiators are already preparing for a possible Trump victory. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have pitted the world’s largest economies against each other, and it is also unclear how cooperative China, now the world’s largest emitter, will be in the face of new trade restrictions on green technology from Washington and Brussels.
The stakes are high: a global challenge
The consequences of failure at COP29 would be devastating. Without sufficient funding for developing countries, the goals set out in the Paris Agreement will remain unmet. Developing countries will struggle to adapt to climate change, leading to further displacement, economic hardship and social unrest.
Moreover, a fragmented global approach will hinder efforts to reduce emissions and mitigate the overall impacts of climate change.
China Response Towards Climate
China’s attitude towards climate finance is a point of contention. The country has invested heavily domestically in renewable energy but refuses to be classified as a major financial contributor.
China argues that its historical emissions are low compared to developed countries and that its status as a developing country means it needs external assistance to transition to clean energy.
This attitude has sparked criticism. China’s rapid economic growth and status as the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter have raised doubts about its continued classification as a developing country. Developed countries may ask China to shoulder a greater financial burden at COP29.
Future for China and COP29
Moving forward, we need a spirit of international cooperation in which all countries recognize the urgency of the climate crisis. Developed countries need to increase their financial commitment, but China could contribute significantly by increasing its support for developing countries and perhaps assuming a larger financial role commensurate with its economic status.
COP29 presents an important opportunity by finding common ground, embracing innovative solutions and prioritizing collective action over national interests, the world can work towards a more sustainable future for all.
