U.S. and China nuclear arms talks in resumed for the first time in five years. Chinese officials told their American counterparts that China would not threaten Taiwan with nuclear weapons, according to two U.S. representatives who attended.
The Chinese representatives gave the assurances after their U.S. interlocutors expressed concern that China could use or threaten to use nuclear weapons if it were defeated in a conflict over Taiwan.
Strained Relations between U.S. and China
Relations between the United States and China have been deteriorating in recent years. Trade disputes, allegations of intellectual property theft, and China’s growing military assertiveness in the South China Sea have contributed to growing distrust.
Exclusive: U.S. and China hold first informal nuclear talks in 5 years, eyeing Taiwan https://t.co/W9FZ0jlZ6R pic.twitter.com/oMKTNfvIVC
— Reuters Asia (@ReutersAsia) June 21, 2024
Recent tensions over Taiwan, a self-governing island that China claims as its territory, have further strained relations. In this context, the decision to resume nuclear arms control is a welcome sign. Nuclear weapons are an existential threat to humanity, and maintaining open channels of communication between the world’s two largest nuclear powers is crucial to prevent accidental escalation or miscalculation.
The History of US-China Nuclear Talks
The US and China have a long and complex history of nuclear arms control discussions. The talks can be traced back to the late 1960s, when both countries were emerging from the shadow of the Cold War. At that time, the US and China had a deeply antagonistic relationship, marked by ideological differences and the ongoing Vietnam War. However, both sides recognized the dangers of nuclear proliferation and the need to establish some guardrails to prevent an accidental nuclear war.
The last formal talks between the US and China on nuclear arms control were held in 2019. These talks broke down without any significant agreements.
The resumption of talks in March 2024 suggests a willingness on both sides to find common ground on this critical issue. However, it is important to remember that the history of US-China nuclear arms control talks is one of fits and starts. It remains to be seen whether the March talks will mark a turning point in the relationship or whether they will be another dead end.
Agenda for the talks
Exact details of the March meeting remain secret. But experts say discussions likely focused on several key areas. Both the United States and China are modernizing their nuclear arsenals. The talks may have discussed ways to build trust and reduce the risk of accidental nuclear war.
This could include setting up a crisis communication hotline and increasing transparency in military exercises. China is not a party to the most important international treaties limiting nuclear arms, such as the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT).
The meeting could have discussed ways to integrate China into the global non-proliferation regime. Both the United States and China have large and growing nuclear arsenals. The meeting could have also discussed limits on the number and types of nuclear weapons each country possesses.
Outcome of the Talks
Despite the positive developments in the resumed talks, significant challenges remain. Both the United States and China harbor persistent suspicions about each other’s intentions. Building trust and finding common ground will be a long and difficult process.
Moreover, China’s growing nuclear arsenal and reluctance to join international non-proliferation treaties will remain major sticking points in the upcoming negotiations.
However, the resumption of negotiations also represents a major opportunity.
Open communication helps avoid misunderstandings and misjudgments and contributes to a more stable and predictable security situation in the Asia-Pacific region.
Looking Forward in Future
The resumption of US-China nuclear arms control talks is a tentative step forward, but it is a step in the right direction. Continued dialogue and a commitment to cooperation are essential for ensuring a future free from the threat of nuclear war.
The March talks were a first step, and it is too early to say whether they will lead to any concrete agreements. However, the willingness of both sides to engage in dialogue is a positive sign. Continued communication and a commitment to finding common ground are essential for building a more secure future for all.
